Seeing the forest and the trees: Holistic view of social distancing on the spread of COVID-19 in China.

The human social and behavioral activities play significant roles in the spread of COVID-19. Social-distancing centered non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are the best strategies to curb the spread of COVID-19 prior to an effective pharmaceutical or vaccine solution. This study investigates various social-distancing measures' impact on the spread of COVID-19 using advanced global and novel local geospatial techniques. Social distancing measures are acquired through website analysis, document text analysis, and other big data extraction strategies. A spatial panel regression model and a newly proposed geographically weighted panel regression model are applied to investigate the global and local relationships between the spread of COVID-19 and the various social distancing measures. Results from the combined global and local analyses confirm the effectiveness of NPI strategies to curb the spread of COVID-19. While global level strategies allow a nation to implement social distancing measures immediately at the beginning to minimize the impact of the disease, local level strategies fine tune such measures based on different times and places to provide targeted implementation to balance conflicting demands during the pandemic. The local level analysis further suggests that implementing different NPI strategies in different locations might allow us to battle unknown global pandemic more efficiently.

Clotting of Hemodialysis Access in Patients with COVID-19 in an Inner-City Hospital.

BACKGROUND: An increased incidence of thrombotic complications in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been reported. Severe acute kidney injury (AKI) is one of the major clinical manifestations of COVID-19 with the need for renal replacement therapy. It was observed that hemodialysis (HD) accesses tended to thrombose more often in the COVID-19 population than in non-COVID-19 patients. We hypothesize that the hypercoagulable state of COVID-19 is associated with higher incidence of access clotting. METHOD: In this retrospective single-centered study at Kings County Hospital in New York City, 1,075 patients with COVID-19 were screened, and 174 patients who received HD from January 3, 2021 to May 15, 2020 were enrolled to examine the risk factors of dialysis access clotting in patients with COVID-19. RESULTS: Of the 174 patients, 109 (63%) were COVID-19 positive. 39 (22.6%) patients had dialysis access clotting at least once during their hospitalization, and they had significantly higher body mass index (BMI) (p = 0.001), higher rates of COVID-19 (p = 0.015), AKI (p < 0.001), higher platelet counts (p = 0.029), higher lactate dehydrogenase levels (p = 0.009), and lower albumin levels (p = 0.001) than those without access malfunctions. Low albumin levels (p = 0.008), AKI (p = 0.008), and high BMI (p = 0.018) were risk factors associated with HD access clotting among COVID-19 patients. CONCLUSION: Patients with COVID-19 who receive HD for AKI with high BMI are at a higher risk of clotting their HD access.

Predicting ionized hypocalcemia: External validation of an ionized calcium prediction model in patients with COVID-19 and renal failure.

BACKGROUND: Ionized hypocalcemia is common in critically ill patients with COVID-19 and is associated with adverse outcomes. We previously developed a linear model that estimates ionized calcium (ICa) by adjusting total calcium (TCa) for the three components of the anion gap and albumin. On internal validation, it outperformed the popular method that corrects TCa for albumin alone (cTCa) in diagnosing low ICa. In this study, we sought to externally validate our ICa model in hospitalized COVID-19 positive patients. METHODS: We retrospectively studied all 200 patients with COVID-19 who were admitted to the State University of New York Downstate Medical Center between March 11th and April 30th 2020 and referred to the nephrology service for renal failure, and who had ICa measured on a venous blood gas within 25 min of a comprehensive metabolic panel. We compared the performance of the ICa model and cTCa in diagnosing low ICa by ROC analysis, and also examined the accuracy of the absolute values predicted by the two methods relative to measured ICa. RESULTS: On ROC analysis, the ICa model was better than cTCa (area under ROC curve: 0.872 [0.025] vs. 0.835 [0.028]; p = 0.045). The ICa model estimated ICa accurately, but the cTCa method seemed to overcorrect TCa, as a substantial number of patients with clearly normal cTCa values had low ICa. CONCLUSIONS: In an external validation cohort, the ICa model estimated ICa accurately and was better than cTCa in the diagnosis of low ICa. This finding can be useful in guiding direct ICa testing.

Early Experience With Methylprednisolone on SARS-CoV-2 Infection in the African American Population, a Retrospective Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) is associated with acute kidney injury (AKI) and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) with high mortality rates. In African American (AA) populations, COVID-19 presentations and outcomes are more severe. NIH and Interim WHO guidelines had suggested against the use of corticosteroids unless in clinical trials until the recent publication of the RECOVERY trial. Here, we analyzed the treatment effect of methylprednisolone on patients with AKI and ARDS during the initial 2 months of COVID-19 and detail the learning effect within our institution. METHODS: Between March 1 and April 30, 2020, 75 AA patients met our inclusion criteria for ARDS and AKI, of which 37 had received corticosteroids. Twenty-eight-day mortality, improvement in PaO2/FiO2 ratio, and renal function were analyzed. The impact of methylprednisolone treatment was assessed with multivariable methods. RESULTS: Survival in the methylprednisolone group reached 51% at 21 days compared to 29% in the non-corticosteroid group (P < .001). Methylprednisolone improved the likelihood of renal function improvement. PaO2/FiO2 ratio in the methylprednisolone group improved by 73% compared to 45% in the non-corticosteroid group (P = .01). Age, gender, BMI, preexisting conditions, and other treatment factors did not show any impact on renal or PaO2/FiO2 ratio improvement. The use of anticoagulants, the month of treatment, and AKI during hospitalization also influenced outcomes. CONCLUSION: In AA COVID-19 positive patients with ARDS and AKI, IV methylprednisolone lowered the incidence of mortality and improved the likelihood of renal and lung function recovery. Further investigation with a randomized control trial of corticosteroids is warranted.